Microsoft views the same statistics and sees the glass as half-full. "If the whole world were already on Windows Server 2003, or on SharePoint, or Dynamics, then that would be a great question," said Ryan Gavin, director of platform strategy for Microsoft. "Maybe the early adopter fruit is gone. But the opportunities are still great."

The Worldwide Partner Conference is Microsoft's once-a-year opportunity to rally its troops. Gavin saluted them, saying that Microsoft's continued lead over Linux in the small to midsize business market is due to the superiority of Microsoft's partners over Linux resellers and system integrators. (Just about 10 percent of the Yankee Group's respondents were using Linux from Red Hat Inc. or Novell on their servers, with that percentage not expected to grow much this year.)

"All the channel support available for Linux today is purely on technical integration," said Gavin. "Customers don't value you for getting the kitchen sink to work. They want to see their kitchen remodeled." This year, Microsoft is expected to unveil a new partner initiative called the People-Ready Channel that it hopes will energize its partners at a time of great uncertainty for them. That effort is slated to start with CEO Steve Ballmer's keynote address Tuesday morning.

Partners such as Kris Barker, CEO of Express Metrix Inc., a Seattle-based provider of Microsoft asset management software and services, are feeling edgy about their future if Microsoft is forced to embrace the software-as-a-service (SaaS) model. That model could threaten the current method of selling software, a system that has benefited many Microsoft partners.

"I am watching SaaS fairly closely," Barker said.