Reality check: Apple, the iPhone, and analyst estimates

23.01.2009

Quoted in the New York Times, Edward Snyder with Charter Equity Research said Apple would "have a difficult time" selling 10 million iPhones in 2008.

Last May, Charles Jade at Ars Technica wrote "it's a good thing Steve Jobs dropped out of college" since analysts with "advanced degrees in business and economics" doubted Apple's ability to sell 10 million iPhones in 2008. Goldman Sachs, mentioned in that article, estimated that Apple would have a 9 million strong installed base -- suggesting Apple would sell just over 5 million units in 2008 when you include the 3.7 million iPhones sold in 2007.

Now, attention is turning to Apple's quarterly figures. There is a lot of buzz around how Apple didn't live up to analysts' expectations of 5 to 7 million iPhones sold in the fourth quarter. The company shipped just under 4.4 million iPhones.

But to look at the analyst expectations for the just-ended quarter and deduce that iPhone sales were weak is foolish. Analysts and experts have poor track records when it comes to the iPhone. The fact that Apple beat its full-year goal by more than a third, it's evident that Apple didn't "miss" anything -- and that Steve Jobs has a home run on his hands.