Rosenblatt and Rosoff both noted that Zune is more than just a vanity project for Microsoft, or even an attempt to open a second front in the company's renewed rivalry with Apple. In fact, both analysts suggested that Zune, like the company's Xbox gaming console, is Microsoft's hedge against the increasingly distinct possibility that the PC won't evolve into the all-purpose digital media center the company once hoped it could become.

"Customers naturally want to know, 'What is going to happen when I try to play a Blu-ray DVD, or an HD-DVD, or some other type of protected content on Vista?' " Rosoff said. "And what's Microsoft's answer? 'That depends.' It's not exactly an encouraging answer."

The business of DRM

Finally, Bill Rosenblatt pointed out that Microsoft might yet turn DRM technology into a profitable, sustainable business -- not in the consumer market, but rather within the enterprise market, where content-protection technologies are winning over a growing number of supporters who see it as an important weapon against data loss, regulatory compliance lapses and other potentially costly business process failures.

"Microsoft actually enjoyed quite a bit of success when it released Windows Rights Management Services back in 2003," Rosenblatt said. "If Microsoft can put some marketing effort behind this product once it gets through its Vista-launch fire drill, I don't think it will be disappointed."