-- There is danger on all fronts -- open-source, software as a service, advertising, cell phones, etc.

As the last two items make clear, the Microsoft story is far from over. Windows and its successors might remain the underlying platform for home, school and enterprise applications, with Microsoft raking in vast profits for literally decades. On the other hand, open-source and online services could reign, with Microsoft becoming just another large base of legacy code. Given the potentially major battles ahead, one wonders whether Gates will really be able to stay on the sidelines, especially if his baby gets in trouble. Like athletes, many CEOs have announced their retirements and then changed their minds.

But perhaps Gates' poker instincts say that the odds are increasingly stacked against him and now is the best time to leave this particular game. After all, his old chum Scott McNealy has already stopped playing and probably wishes he had done so sooner. Even Larry Ellison doesn't seem to be having as much fun as he used to. At various times, Gates has been underestimated, loved, admired, feared, hated and even deemed irrelevant. Now, it's time for him to find a new game. As it happens, the one he has chosen is big enough to challenge both his and Warren Buffett's wallets.

One of the great ironies of modern capitalism is that most people instinctively believe that monopolies are bad for society and are therefore best eliminated. But without them, where would we get the surplus wealth that funds the great private libraries, museums, foundations, parks, and cultural and scientific institutions that take us beyond our workaday lives? Let's hope that Gates uses the operating systems and applications money we have all given him over the past 25 years to do something truly great. In this grander, more important game, we should be rooting for him to win once again.

David Moschella is global research director at the Leading Edge Forum, a Computer Sciences Corp. company. Contact him at dmoschella@earthlink.net.