History shows that the functionality of stand-alone gadgets always gets folded into multipurpose devices. Apple's instinct to maximize elegance at the expense of extensibility made them No. 1 in the media player market, but the future belongs to customizable, multifunction players.

Apple's instinct is Microsoft's opportunity -- to leapfrog Apple and usher in the next-generation media player that anyone can upgrade, customize and extend.

Microsoft will never beat Apple at its own game. But the reverse is also true: Apple can't win at the Microsoft game. If Microsoft turns Zune into a media-optimized, extensible mini-PC that really works, the iPod is as good as dead.

Mike Elgan is a technology writer and former editor of Windows Magazine. He can be reached at mike.elgan+computerworld@gmail.com or his blog: http://therawfeed.com.