Scenario planning is a discipline that gained favour in the corporate world in the 1970s, with Royal Dutch Shell at the forefront of its development. Today, the oil giant continues to use the methodology.

“Shell uses scenarios to explore the future,” the company states. “Our scenarios are not mechanical forecasts. They recognise that people hold beliefs and make choices that can lead down different paths. They reveal different possible futures that are plausible and challenging. Our latest energy scenarios look at the world in the next half century, linking the uncertainties we hold about the future to the decisions we must make today.”

Enterprise risk management is one of the most crucial issues for companies to address. It has a direct link to company performance as well as having important corporate governance implications. However, in reality, the challenge is so large - and so diverse - that it is almost impossible to put in place a methodology that will cover all bases.

As a result, a combination of technology, process, cross-functional analysis and scenario planning is the best way large organisations can hope to satisfactorily approach the challenge. And, on top of this, a return to good old-fashioned values.