Despite the cheery new, Johnson said the first quarter of 2006 isn't looking as good for online retailers. "Although Q4 looks OK, the trends that both bolster and keep online sales at bay in Q4 will converge to negatively affect online sales in Q1," Johnson said in the report.

One reason for the shift is that consumers will likely buy gift cards online in the fourth quarter but redeem them by actually going to stores in the first quarter, rather than using them online, she said. In addition, while free shipping will draw many shoppers to the Web, many retailers may not meet delivery expectations, driving consumers away from additional online purchases. And finally, because consumers are expected to spend an average of $700 more this winter to heat their homes -- in addition to paying higher gasoline prices -- they will not have as much money to spend online after the holidays.