Reality Check: Is LCD supply manipulation afoot?

13.06.2006
The Crystal Cycle is an industry term that refers to shortages in the supply-and-demand cycle for LCD displays. When notebook PCs started taking off, we saw the first shortage. There was another serious shortage with the emergence of 14-inch and 15-inch notebooks, and a third when LCD desktop displays took off.

Shortages, of course, mean higher prices and longer waits for products, facts that IT buyers need to keep abreast of. So every couple of years I put it in my mental calendar to call an LCD analyst and ask whether any shortages are coming up.

As sales of LCD televisions start to explode, you might assume we are in for another one. After all, the same mother-glass manufacturer who makes notebook and desktop displays makes the glass for televisions as well. But according to Chris Connery at industry analyst company DisplaySearch, something unusual is happening this year.

Given the huge potential market for flat-panel televisions, manufacturers have been expanding production ahead of demand. Samsung has partnered with Sony to build a US$3 billion Gen 7 mother-glass plant, while LG and Philips have joined forces in an effort to ramp up production. Plus, the Taiwan and mainland China manufacturers are going full bore. If every company produced at maximum capacity it would put an LCD display in every household and on every business desktop worldwide.

"Now we are in an extreme over-supply situation," Connery says.

That's the good news. Now for the bad.