Physicist: Moore's Law as we know it is on its last legs

01.05.2012
Moore's Law -- the idea that computing power doubles roughly once every 18 months -- has proved to be surprisingly accurate since it was first outlined by Gordon Moore, a co-founder of Intel.

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However, in recent decades, high-profile pronouncements of its impending collapse have become nearly as regular. CCNY theoretical physics professor Michio Kaku has been predicting such a breakdown since at least 2003, and he reiterated his views in a recent video talk for BigThink. He said that the critical point will be reached within a decade.

The constant shrinking of transistors -- which is responsible for the increased density and consequently higher computing capacity of microprocessors -- is unsustainable, according to Kaku. Once transistors approach 5 nanometers in size, they will be subject to two key problems: High density will see running temperatures skyrocket to impractically high levels, and quantum mechanics suggests that the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle will result in electron leakage from the chip.

It's worth noting that Intel's new Ivy Bridge chips -- which represent a 10-nanometer shrink from the previous generation -- than their predecessors under overclocking, though this may be due in part to other structural factors. Nevertheless, this could suggest that transistor density and size are beginning to be a concern for microprocessors.