Estonia defense minister: Cyberattacks will grow

18.03.2010

"Cyberattcks that may constitute a national security threat are not a science-fiction thing anymore," he said. "It is a reality that may return one day in much larger scale in much bigger countries."

Others at the conference agreed. A major cyberattack sponsored by terrorists or a state will happen within the next decade, predicted Jerry Archer, chief information security officer with Sallie Mae. "I think within the next five to 10 years we will have a cyberwar that will turn into a shooting war," he said, speaking during a panel discussion at the conference.

In the meantime, there's a lot of work left to be done to fight cybercrime. "The legal instruments that we've developed to fight cybercrimes and cyberattacks are clearly underdeveloped," Aaviksoo said.

Aaviksoo's comments were underscored Tuesday by the ongoing efforts of law enforcement and security investigators to take down a notorious Internet service provider called Troyak. Associated with the Zeus botnet, Troyak has spent the past week jumping from one service provider to another after legitimate companies have stopped doing business with it.

Failed states, such as Moldova's Trans-Dniester region and other countries where cybercrime enforcement is lax, make it hard to shut down bad operators, Aaviksoo said in an interview after his talk. "There are very many more safe havens in cyberspace than in real space," he said.