Do Speculators Wag the Dog? Maybe Not

02.06.2011

Schwarz's paper also takes aim at some long-accepted economic conjecture, saying that the evidence she collected in her study refutes John Maynard Keynes 1930 conjecture that futures market risk premiums should be related to positions because hedgers use futures markets to buy insurance.

While "some evidence for the Keynesian hedging pressure theory has been found in the context of commodity futures," Schwarz says she finds "little evidence that hedging pressure explains equity futures risk premia, as Keynes had hypothesized."