He stuck by the $299 price point today -- based on a materials and manufacturing total of $189 for an 8GB model -- but acknowledged he was weakening.

"I still think a starting price of $299 is more likely, but I'm less certain than I was before," Singh said in an email reply to questions Monday, after seeing the MobileGeeks blog post. "It really depends on how Apple views the competitive dynamics in the industry. If Apple sees the [Google] Nexus 7 and the [Amazon] Kindle Fire as major threats, they could get more aggressive with a $249 price."

Singh was also dubious because of the 16 different configurations cited in the screen shot, which included black and white Wi-Fi models in 8GB, 16GB, 32GB and 64GB storage sizes; and the same four storage options for an iPad able to connect to a cellular data network.

"The first thing that jumped out was the sheer number of SKUs [stock-keeping units], especially considering the fact that the order size was just 8-10 million," said Singh. "Apple usually uses larger storage sizes to balance out margins on lower storage models, but I'm not sure that would be much help in this case. With the iPad Mini, Apple's targeting two sets of consumers: First time, price-sensitive buyers and tablet owners looking for a second, more portable device. I don't think either segment would be willing to pay a steep price for an iPad Mini. And Apple may be better off steering high-income customers toward higher-end models [like the larger iPad]."

Singh's betting that Apple will show a much shorter configuration list than the one portrayed in the screenshot.