If Microsoft meant the iPad as the comparable ARM tablet, the Windows RT Surface might be priced at $599 (for the 32GB) or $699 (for the 64GB), the prices Apple charges for similarly-configured iPads. Meanwhile, a Windows 8 Pro tablet would cost at least $700, more likely $800-$900 and up, said Gottheil, citing current prices for ultrabooks.

The latter strays dangerously close to not only Windows-based ultrabooks, but also the $999 price of Apple's entry-level MacBook Air, a thin-and-light laptop that, like the Surface, features 64GB of flash-based storage, an Intel "Ivy Bridge" i5 processor; and a screen close enough in size not to matter (11.6-in. versus the 10.6-in. in the Surface).

And the MacBook Air is just four ounces heavier than the Windows 8 Pro Surface.

Only if Microsoft drew the Windows RT Surface's price from Android tablets would it post a number lower than the iPad. "If they go head-to-head with Android [tablets], they need to come in at no more than $300," said Gottheil.

-- a dollar above what Apple charges for 2011's 16GB iPad 2 -- should be the price of the ARM-powered Surface.