Today, the Windows Mobile OS gives Microsoft a 6.8% share of the global market for smartphones, a share that IDC expects will rise to 9.8% by the end of 2014 with WP7 and future generations.

That will put Microsoft in fifth place in 2014, which might sound unimpressive except that smartphones sold by all vendors will double in number, exceeding more than 500 million in four years, Llamas said. Gartner has been more pessimistic about Windows Phone's success, saying it will only command 3.9% of the market by 2014.

"What will constitute success for WP7?" Llamas asked. "Would it be a million sold in three days like Apple? No. Will WP7 turn heads? Yes, I think so. But this is not going to be an overnight sensation. It will take a lot of seeding and grooming by Microsoft, so look for them to do a very convincing marketing campaign. Marketing really matters at this point."

Matt Hamblen covers mobile and wireless, smartphones and other handhelds, and wireless networking for Computerworld. Follow Matt on Twitter at or subscribe to . His e-mail address is .