Paul Graham revisits 'Microsoft is Dead'

10.04.2009
Two years ago, Y Combinator founder Paul Graham posted a 1,188-word essay entitled "." He said Microsoft's "shadow" over the software industry had disappeared, thanks to four factors -- Google, Ajax, broadband Internet, and Apple. "No one is even afraid of Microsoft anymore," Graham wrote. "They still make a lot of money -- so does IBM, for that matter. But they're not dangerous."

While Graham has built a reputation as a successful programmer and startup supporter (Y Combinator-funded companies include Reddit, Xobni, and Scribd), his essay on Microsoft . Dave Winer said , but was being "pulled back to earth by gravity." Microsoft biz dev executive Don Dodge and said:

Apple has about 6% of the computer market. Google has about 45% of the search market. Microsoft competes in desktop operating systems, server operating systems, databases, and development tools. Oh yes, I almost forgot, Microsoft has a multi-billion dollar Xbox gaming business, a multi-billion dollar MSN content and search business, a multi-billion dollar CRM and ERP business, and nearly a billion dollar business in Windows Mobile for wireless devices. So Paul, tell me again. Where is Apple and Google killing Microsoft?

Things have changed a lot in the two years since. Both Apple and Google . The high hopes for Web 2.0 have been replaced by daily layoffs and a search for real revenue.

I emailed Graham to ask if he had changed his mind about Microsoft.

"A lot of people misunderstood that essay, and asked how I could claim a company making so much money was dead," Graham replied. "Obviously I didn't mean Microsoft was bankrupt. What I meant was that they were no longer a factor one had to consider when doing something in technology."