By contrast, this kind of segmentation has so far not been the case for the iPhone. Apple's practice is to introduce the iPhone yearly, with different storage options and pricing, and create a lower-cost version by cutting the price of one model of the previous iPhone generation. Although more phones are sold than iOS phones, the iPhone remains the best-selling branded model.

"If the gadget that Tim Cook holds up next week is nothing more than a cheaper, smaller iPad, it will send a worrying message to his company's investors," worries Waters. "What will be next? Lower prices on 10-inch iPads as Amazon and others move upmarket? Cheaper, entry-level iPhones as growth moves to the emerging world?"

The horror.

"But each new product that fails to change the game - an iPhone 5 that was merely good enough, a maps service that tarnished the company's reputation and forced an apology - is a reminder that there is no substitute for real innovation," Waters intones. "A small-screen iPad will do nothing to silence the doubters."

Waters and the other "doubters" assume what they conclude. A small iPad can't be innovative. So announcing a small iPad proves there's no innovation.