"Microsoft needs to pound Apple," Enderle says. "The iPad is still a pretty limited product, a netbook without a keyboard. If Microsoft can get people to see it that way, then the iPad can go the way of the [ill-fated] netbook."

Apple won't be watching passively from its newly planned . In fact, Microsoft gave Apple good lead time - perhaps too much lead time - by spacing Surface's announcement this week with shipments in the fall. Apple, of course, doesn't extend rivals such courtesy; availability of new Apple products comes within 30 days, sometimes 24 hours, of the time of announcement.

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In Surface's favor, the iPad isn't as entrenched as most people think. Early adopters who tend to buy tablets love to chase the latest shiny gadget-and Surface is just that. Also, PC users sitting on the fence with tablets might be more inclined to purchase Surface because of its strong similarities to laptops.

All of this will depend largely on a well-executed, well-funded marketing blitz.