It seems that many businesses believe that when you've been around for long enough whatever it is you have been successful at can't possibly ever become obsolete. This is despite the fact that there are countless examples of how business models die off as our culture and technologies evolve.

Consider the horse business. Many people thought cars would never supplant horses. In fact, in 1903 Henry Ford's lawyer, Horace Rackham, was advised by George Peck, the president of the Michigan Savings Bank, not to invest in Ford Motor Company. Peck told Rackham, "The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty, a fad." Just 16 years later, Rackham's $5,000 investment in Ford became worth $12,500,000.

What brings this to mind is the New York Times just announced that, starting sometime in 2011, its content will no longer be free for customers who consume a lot. What the paper plans to do is allow people to read a few articles at no charge and, should they then want to delve into the Times archives or read more articles "below the fold", they'll have to put their hands in their pockets.

Obviously the Times hopes to build a large enough group of dedicated readers who will pay enough for content that it will more than offset the lost Web site traffic lost and associated advertising revenue.

Sounds good but it won't work. Here's why.