Sci-Fi Writers and Technology's Future

16.12.2008

What one or two predictions do you feel you got right-or way wrong?

"The one I'm proudest of is predicting the YouTube user-generated video revolution," says Robert Sawyer. "That was in 1998's Factoring Humanity (in which I called it 'desktop TV,' as a parallel to 'desktop publishing'); Factoring Humanity was a Hugo Award-finalist."

On his "missed" list, says Sawyer, "The notion that we'd have flying cars by 2030 (which I have in my 1999 novel, FlashForward. Granted, 2030 hasn't rolled around yet, but I now think that flying cars are as unlikely as eating pills instead of full meals, the other big prediction that 'The Jetsons' made; both of those things are cartoon ideas, not reasonable predictions."

Nancy Kress says, "My novel Beggars in Spain postulated sleeplessness, and although we're not yet there, the drug modafinil brings us much closer. My short story "Evolution" is based on the resistance of disease to every antibiotic we can throw at it-a prediction just starting to come true and likely to become far, far worse. On the other hand, I hope I'm dead wrong about Stinger's creation of that can target a specific population, and also about the ultimate extent of global warming in Nothing Human. We'll know in 100 years."

If you were writing one of your novels or stories today, would you change anything about the predictions you made?