Retail CFOs See 3% Year-End Sales Rise

04.10.2011

The survey showed CFOs projecting a 3.5% increase in comparable-store sales in the second half, helping the overall expected 2011 rise grow to 2.3%. Last year's November sales for comparable stores were reported to have risen 6%, with the December rise being 3.1%.

In other areas important to retailers, finance chiefs also had encouraging expectations. All but 4% of the CFOs in the survey saw merger-and-acquisition activity increasing or staying unchanged, for example, after a year that has featured deals involving such retailers as J. Crew, BJ's Wholesale, Jo-Ann Stores, and Drugstore.com in the U.S., and Bulgari in the global arena. The survey showed that 66% expected the U.S. to be the primary scene of M&A activity, with Asia-Pacific seen as the favored area by 18%, and Europe by 16%. CFOs with the largest retailers in the survey indicated they foresaw more activity in the international market, with 75% in that group expecting Europe to host a majority of global M&A.

The survey showed finance execs to be divided in whether strategic buyers or financial buyers would drive M&A activity in the near future, with 52% seeing more strategic deals and 48% seeing more financial ones. The average Ebitda they count on for retail and consumer-product M&A was 6.6%, lower than the 6.8% and 8.2% quoted for 2010 and 2009, respectively.

Retail CFOs confirmed that revenue (38%) and Ebitda (36%) are their primary financial metrics.