NBN two years on: On a precipice

07.04.2011

The on-flows of the initial announcement have rarely been predictable, and, with the dust settled, there has been no shortage of those eager to share their thoughts on the issue. From constant demands of a cost-benefit analysis for such a massive project to the microscopic surgery conducted on every single decision made by those surrounding the project, it is little surprise when those suffering from a lack of proper broadband access .

Coughlan and Budde agree that the NBN has been sidetracked to a degree by debate surrounding the project. "Having to front up to Senate committees, and answer the perennial question 'Why don't you do this with wireless?' -- any technologist will tell you that's a silly question," Coughlan says.

But with the network now set in stone - a fact even the opposition has reluctantly begun to admit - the conversation has slowly turned from whether or not the project should go ahead, to how the project should be rolled out and what an NBN world actually looks like.

For Telsyte's Coughlan, the major issues going forward revolve around how a future telecommunications sector will work. It's a murky issue, made more complex given that NBN Co's pricing structure squeezes small ISPs out of the equation. Should they want to participate, they'll likely be pushed onto a wholesale aggregation service operated by either Telstra or Optus - an eerily familiar story.

"I think there'll be consolidation, but I don't think it will actually improve unless new entrants come into the market," Coughlan says. The pricing structure itself is likely to push bundling, he says, "to maximise the revenues they make from the service".