After Jobs revealed last week that he was suffering from what he called a "hormonal imbalance," one noted endocrinologist said that Jobs may have , and that he could be treated with insulin.

Apple has a history of keeping a lid on information about Jobs' health. The company waited until after his 2004 pancreatic surgery before notifying investors. Last summer, after rumors began circulating about his WWDC appearance, Apple initially said that Jobs was suffering from a "common bug," an explanation some analysts found hard to believe. Last week, when Jobs himself disclosed a continued health problem, he swore it would be his last missive on the subject. "So now I've said more than I wanted to say, and all that I am going to say, about this," he said then.

An Apple without Jobs, said Gottheil, would still be a remarkable company, but with less of the competitive edge that Jobs helped create. "If he isn't able to return, I think you'd see a high-functioning company, but one without the lightning strike of genius. They'd have a human batting average."

"Look, Jobs is not throwing in the towel here," countered Baker. "He clearly anticipates that he will be coming back."

For Gottheil's money, Apple faces a tough future even if Jobs was at the helm. "The big thing coming up is how hard the recession is going to hit them, not Jobs' absence," said Gottheil. "If he were not there [in the future] and the recession hits harder than they planned for, then it might cause them to wobble."