The Macalope Weekly: Weak sauce

20.10.2012
There are weak arguments and then there are the three arguments youre about to read. First, are you ready for the RIM comeback?! Hello? Is this thing on? Second, does the size of the iPhone 5 show Apples arrogance? Dur, do you have to even ask? And, finally, hope you like Windows Phone, because your local cell carrier is apparently going to put you in a headlock until you buy one.

We all know denial is not a river in Egypt, but has anyone checked to see if its a river in Canada?

Writing for IT World Canada, Tim Collins brings us (tip o the antlers to ).

Oh, Tim, honey. Dont.

Im the only diehard in my office who is still sporting a Blackberry.

Get help.

Going into 2011, everyone at my company used Blackberrys. We were huge fans. We BBMd each other constantly. We even blogged about how much we loved our Blackberrys. Then RIM started to nosedive and one by one, my staff started showing up at the office with iPhones.

The reason RIM started to nosedive was because its other customers got fed up waiting for a phone that didnt look like it was calling from 2003. Its not the other way around. You get that, right?

Hope the formatting of this column doesnt get screwed up on the text-only mobile version youre looking at.

(Cheap RIM jokes! The Macalope buys them by the gross at Costco!)

In spite of its challenges, I still believe that RIM will make a comeback. Its not just wishful thinking.

No, the Macalope imagines theres also a of hallucinogenics involved.

RIM has a knack for motivating some of the most brilliant minds on the planet. I personally know several developers who are still working for RIM and who are not the least bit interested in jumping ship.

RIMs comeback will be fueled by the most powerful force in the universe: anecdotes!

Is there some coming explosion in the population of teenagers in the world that the Macalope is unaware of?

My bet is that the genius engineers at RIM are going to have the best touchscreen keyboard on the market.

As the saying goes about cameras, the best one is the one you have with you. And the keyboard everyone has with them are on their iPhones and Android devices.

Its nice that RIM now has management that, unlike the Undynamic Duo, recognizes theres a problem. But it doesnt help that you can smell the coffee if youre lying on the floor with your entire body wrapped in Saran wrap.

The BB10 operating system is being licensed for other hardware like Microsoft Windows Phone 8.

Agreed. RIMs most likely path for success is as a shell company licensing its technologies to other companies that can actually make and ship modern phones.

They still have $2 billion in cash and a user base of 80 million that grew by 2 million last quarter.

RIMs revenue for the last quarter grew from the prior quarter, but is still down considerably from last year. The way theyre gaining users is by fire sale.

Indeed. Enjoy your niche position.

RIM awesome at vaporware. The Macalope fondly remembers how the PlayBook was totally going to own the iPad. Until it shipped.

Do they still even make the PlayBook?

The last iPhone had only incremental improvements.

You know whats really boring? Listening to RIM yammer on about how awesome its next products are going to be, if only the market would just slow down and wait for it.

Samsung and Apple are embroiled in legal battles that wont end any time soon.

Its pretty rich having a RIM fan tell you Apple and Samsung cant walk and chew gum at the same time as RIM keeps tripping over its overly large clown shoes.

Im excited to watch RIM pull off the biggest comeback of the century.

Uh, OK, but you dont have money on this, do you?

&

Or & would you like to?

Does it ever strike you as odd that the Macalope can find fresh meat to tear his antlers into every day? How is it that pretty much every day of the week there is someone who is eager to step up (down?) and write something stupid about Apple? And how do these people think it reflects on them?

The Macalope doesnt have an answer, and hes not sure he wants to look a gift horse in the mouth. After all, its job security.

Which brings us to hedge fund manager Doug Kass, who is here to tell us about

The real abuse, Doug, is reading your Apple analysis.

Kasss first order of business is to try to throw Woz in Apples face. Woz has, once again, said things that are not very favorable to Apple. Anyone surprised by that should review his comments of the last 15 years and marvel that anyone takes pause in them, even as Apple continued its march to unprecedented success.

The Macalope has said it before and hell say it again: Its interesting how the people most interested in Wozs comments are the ones trying to bash Apple over the head with them.

Wozs criticism, which Kass quotes, is over the screen size of the iPhone 5.

I wish they had made a small and a large version of the iPhone; that would have been great for me.

The iPhone 5 is literally smaller than the iPhone 4 and 4S. Do the math. Only the screen is larger. Now, maybe he wants a 3.5-inch screen iPhone 5 that would be even smaller, but Apples strategy is to make one current generation of the iPhone. And, oh, hey, look, its worked pretty well. But Woz wants a pony.

Kass:

Arrogance has been the subject of some of my criticism recently on Apple. (It is also often the downfall of many companies.)

Really. Arrogance. And here the Macalope thought it was things like sales, revenues, and profit. Who knew that business analysis was really more about psychology than fundamentals?

Reminder: This man manages a hedge fund.

So, Kasss conclusion is that its arrogance that drives Apples decision to add features on its own terms, when they make sense, instead of jamming them into phones just to check them off on a list. Dont wait for battery life to catch up to screen sizes, just stop shipping Retina displays or make a giant honking phone!

Ohhh, you mean theres a trade-off and this isnt a free, all-you-can-eat candy store?

Also, if you believe the current Apple form factor is the best answer and Apple wont or cant do a larger-screen device (and will stick to one phone at a time for cost reasons), what is the next iPhone going to have that will really matter and get customers excited to buy it and help the company gain additional share?

Is gaining share Apples goal? Seems like its goal is to make a crapload of money.

Is the bulk of the innovation done? And, yes, I know its easy to say that Apple always thinks of something new, but the reality is that the last few iterations of iPhone have been evolutionary and not revolutionaryand, arguably, they now lag the market.

You could always argue they lagged behind the market. People have been doing that for five years. The first iPhone only had EDGE! It didnt have a replaceable battery! Total deal killer!

Its astounding how some analysts will simply cling to this checkbox mentality no matter how many times we point out that Apple doesnt operate that way. And the company doesnt seem any worse for not trying to get into a stupid arms race.

Another issue I would raise is how unfriendly Apples suppliers have been to their employees.

Of you would. After all, trying to throw everything against the wall to see what sticks is your shtick.

Suppose a Wal-Mart supplier was accused of these conditions.

Suppose the company that was accused of having that mistreated employees? Gosh, what would the ramifications be?!

In my opinion, Apple is hypocriticalthe company is every bit the that it once accused Microsoft MSFT of being&

That link is to James B. Stewarts hi-larious piece warning that Mapgate could raise antitrust concerns, a piece that Glenn Fleishman & sorry, thats Glenn Fleishman & when it was published.

Hang on, though. Kass isnt done with his ridiculous rant. Turns out part of the problem, too:

And Apples customers are also hypocritical by continuing to buy Apples products and thereby supporting this abusive behavior.

Right. We should totally be buying stuff from companies that arent so arrogant as to ship phones with 4-inch screens in a 16:9 aspect ratio and whose suppliers are all located in the workers paradise known as Magical Fairy Candycaneland.

This is simply not a logical argument. Stupid, deranged, and/or pushing an ulterior motive, the Macalope does not know, but whatever the case, it doesnt make a great advertisement for investing in Kasss hedge fund.

Good news, Windows Phone fans!

What? Oh. Sorry, the Macalope got a little carried away.

But good news, uh, Roger! Nokia CEO and Microsoft plant Stephen Elop says Windows Phones ascendance is set to happen any day now!

Like & RIGHT NOW!

&

No?

What about & NOW!

&

Still nothing?

So, when exactly is this supposed to happen?

Ah, the ol carriers will just shove Windows Phones in peoples pockets and push them out the door strategy!

But weve seen this picture. Back in April, one of the Cassandras of Wall Street huffed some fumes in the cave where they commune with the flighty and vengeful gods that control the stock market and declared that because carriers were going to turn to Windows Phone in 2012.

Hows that working out so far?

Oops. And, let the Macalope get this straight, Elop welcomes Microsoft shipping its own phone?

Nokia CEO Stephen Elop reckons carriers fears over the Android and Apple duopoly will force the birth of the Windows Phone ecosystem that hes bet the Finnish companys future onan ecosystem he believes would benefit from Microsofts presence.

Do Steve Ballmer and Andrew Lees ever argue over who gets to work Elops mouth and who gets to move his hands?

Elop said operators had made decisions to combat rivals hit products in the past and will be able to do so again once Nokia ships its Lumia 820 and flagship Lumia 920.

This time itll work for sure!

I think [a Microsoft smartphone would be] certainly a stimulant to the ecosystem.

Oh, jeez. Microsoft, just buy Nokia already and put the poor guy out of his misery. Its like watching a cat play with a baby bird.

Look, the Macalope likes Windows Phone. If he couldnt have an iPhone (shudder), hed get a Windows Phone which, he doesnt mind telling you, is weird to him. But there it is. So he doesnt get why its not resonating with people.

But its resonating with people. Of course, Elops saying what he has to say, but that doesnt make it less pathetic.

[ Macworld]