While Graham has built a reputation as a successful programmer and startup supporter (Y Combinator-funded companies include Reddit, Xobni, and Scribd), his essay on Microsoft . Dave Winer said , but was being "pulled back to earth by gravity." Microsoft biz dev executive Don Dodge and said:
Apple has about 6% of the computer market. Google has about 45% of the search market. Microsoft competes in desktop operating systems, server operating systems, databases, and development tools. Oh yes, I almost forgot, Microsoft has a multi-billion dollar Xbox gaming business, a multi-billion dollar MSN content and search business, a multi-billion dollar CRM and ERP business, and nearly a billion dollar business in Windows Mobile for wireless devices. So Paul, tell me again. Where is Apple and Google killing Microsoft?
Things have changed a lot in the two years since. Both Apple and Google . The high hopes for Web 2.0 have been replaced by daily layoffs and a search for real revenue.
I emailed Graham to ask if he had changed his mind about Microsoft.
"A lot of people misunderstood that essay, and asked how I could claim a company making so much money was dead," Graham replied. "Obviously I didn't mean Microsoft was bankrupt. What I meant was that they were no longer a factor one had to consider when doing something in technology."
Graham stands by his claim. In fact, he's added two more Microsoft-eroding changes to his list.
"The big stories in the 2 years since have been [Amazon Web Services] and iPhone apps," he wrote. Graham still marvels that Web 2.0 startups get their remote computing resources not from Microsoft, but from Amazon: "An online retailer! It would have seemed almost impossible to people in 1999 that anyone would be saying that in 2009."