It's a question nobody would ask today. The phone, and 's other mobile devices that run the iOS are succeeding beyond anyone's predictions. Apple says the iOS is currently installed on .
Another small thing happened in 2007 that has become a big thing: Apple filed a patent request for the capacitive touch screen used by the , and, in fact, by nearly all of Apple's competitors in the market. That this week.
One possible outcome of the inevitable court cases to come is that competitors may have to pay Apple a licensing fee for every non-Apple smartphone or tablet shipped.
Since its 2007 launch, there has always been a lot of hype around the iPhone far beyond actual market share. The many brands that run the Android OS collectively own more market share both globally and in the U.S. than the iPhone. And internationally, handsets from giants like Nokia have maintained more sales than those from Apple.
But all this appears to be changing. In the first quarter of this year, Android phone market share declined nearly 3%, while iOS's share . Android still has nearly half the smartphone market, and Apple significantly less than that (about 30%.)
These changing fortunes could represent a temporary blip caused by Apple's availability on Verizon. Or it could be a trend.
Another possible trend is the decline and fall of Nokia. That company's smartphone handset market share dropped from 24% to 16% in one year. Apple remained at while the overall pie grew significantly.
When the iPhone shipped in 2007, nobody -- and I mean nobody -- predicted that Apple would sell more handsets worldwide than Nokia within four years.
A recent survey measuring Web traffic by various devices found that some . And if you think that's high, the number is 100% in Japan and 99% in the UK. (The global average is 89%.)
All these market share and traffic numbers mask a stark business reality: Apple makes vastly more money from mobile devices than its competitors.
Firstly, Apple makes money from handsets, which no longer sells. Secondly, Apple makes money from apps -- far more per app than any other platform, and far more apps. For example, last year Google earned about $102 million from apps sales, while Apple .
Apple's iOS is -- 2.3 times higher.
App developers point out that iOS is than the Google Android platform, and presumably other competitors as well.
The success of iOS devices thus far is nothing compared with what's coming. One report says Apple has ordered two manufacturers to build enough iPhone 5 handsets to sell . The new phone is expected to launch in August or September.
A study coming from the Yankee Group next month finds that about next time they buy a phone.
A reasonably credible rumor from a blogger in China says that China's biggest carrier, China Mobile, will soon .
The current iPhone is available in China only from the No. 2 carrier. Such an announcement would suggest a radical increase in iPhone sales in the world's largest country, and one with an incredible , where the iPhone is very popular.
Apple currently dominates the tablet market, having sold 25 million iPads to date and possibly over . But one analyst believes .
OK, OK. It's clear that Apple's iOS is beyond successful, and threatens to dominate global mobile sales in the foreseeable future.
The reason this is significant is that as Apple comes to dominate mobile computing, mobile computing increasingly dominates computing in general.
Over the next five years, we'll see more people using phones and tablets as their main computing device. And I think we can also expect to see current desktop platforms like Mac OS X, Windows and Linux replaced by touch-friendly interfaces like iOS, Android, Metro and so on.
In other words, Apple's iOS is poised to take over mainstream computing.
Mike Elgan writes about technology and tech culture. Contact and learn more about Mike at , or subscribe to his free e-mail newsletter, .
in Computerworld's Mobile OSes Topic Center.