First, a little background: The experts have been wrong before when it comes to iPhone sales. In January 2007, when the iPhone was introduced, Steve Jobs predicted that Apple would sell 10 million iPhones in calendar year 2008. His prediction was widely derided by analysts and Apple skeptics -- and even some Apple backers. Those who said it was possible or even likely were discounted as fanboys.
Now the results are in. Apple actually sold 13.7 million iPhones in 2008, 37% higher than the goal set two years ago.
What about the skeptics? Here's what some of them had to say in 2007:
Lance Davis, writing at the UK Register, heavily discounted the likelihood of the iPhone reaching such stratospheric heights. He was wrong on every count. "It would be surprising if iPhone accounted for one per cent of sales just within the one network which had been announced -- AT&T." That would be half a million smartphones. Apple sold more than 1.1 million phones in Q3 of 2007, the first full quarter it was available, alone.
Mike Elgan, writing for Computerworld (like The Industry Standard, a publication of IDG) said selling 10 million phones was "probably an unreachable goal... by setting the bar at 10 million iPhones sold by 2008, Jobs unnecessarily risks the erosion of faith in Apple when the company fails to reach that goal."
Quoted in the New York Times, Edward Snyder with Charter Equity Research said Apple would "have a difficult time" selling 10 million iPhones in 2008.
Last May, Charles Jade at Ars Technica wrote "it's a good thing Steve Jobs dropped out of college" since analysts with "advanced degrees in business and economics" doubted Apple's ability to sell 10 million iPhones in 2008. Goldman Sachs, mentioned in that article, estimated that Apple would have a 9 million strong installed base -- suggesting Apple would sell just over 5 million units in 2008 when you include the 3.7 million iPhones sold in 2007.
Now, attention is turning to Apple's quarterly figures. There is a lot of buzz around how Apple didn't live up to analysts' expectations of 5 to 7 million iPhones sold in the fourth quarter. The company shipped just under 4.4 million iPhones.
But to look at the analyst expectations for the just-ended quarter and deduce that iPhone sales were weak is foolish. Analysts and experts have poor track records when it comes to the iPhone. The fact that Apple beat its full-year goal by more than a third, it's evident that Apple didn't "miss" anything -- and that Steve Jobs has a home run on his hands.