'Uh-Oh': A CFO Survey Turns Ominous

11.10.2011
One monthly measurement of the nation's business pulse, taken mainly among CFOs of mid-sized companies, shows a major weakening in September. And the finance-heavy executive group also has lower expectations for October and November.

The area of capital availability, one of four broken out in the survey by Tatum, registered the biggest reversal in experience and expectations among CFOs. The proportion of respondents saying that capital availability worsened in September increased to 23% from 16% in August, while those experiencing improved capital conditions declined to 11% from 14%. As for expectations for the next two months, 24% foresaw a worsening, compared with 14% in the prior survey, while 19% expected an improvement in the next two months, up from 18%.

A press release for the monthly survey by , was headlined, "Uh-Oh: All Signs Point to Recession Once Again." Tatum said it had 119 email responses, mostly from Tatum's CFO partners. Other respondents are corporate principals, managing partners or CIO partners with the Tatum organization. [See attachments at the end of this story.]

Overall business conditions were seen to have worsened in September by 21% of respondents, compared with 17% in the prior month, while the number noting an improvement stayed the same at 24%. But 17% expected conditions to deteriorate in the next two months, up from 8% in August, while 37% saw an improvement ahead, up from 35%.

The business-conditions index used by Tatum plunged to a two-year low of 1.7, after being within a range between 2.7 and 10.7 each month of the past 12. An index number in the 3.0-to-4.0 range indicates near-zero economic growth, while scores below 3.0 suggest recessionary conditions, as was the case with below-3.0 scores in 2008 and 2009.