Sci-Fi Writers and Technology's Future

16.12.2008
Science fiction isn't (as a rule) about predicting the future, and science fiction writers aren't trying to predict it.

"No sensible science-fiction writer tries to predict anything," says , whose work includes the classic The Space Merchants (written with Cyril M. Kornbluth), MAN PLUS, and most recently The Last Theorem, co-authored with the late . "Neither do the smartest futurologists. What those people do is try to imagine every important thing that may happen (so as to do in the present things which may encourage the good ones and forestall the bad) and that's what SF writers do in their daily toil."

Accurate Predictions Even When They Weren't Trying Getting to the moon by shooting a manned capsule out of a way big cannon-Jules Verne, From The Earth To The Moon. Getting to the moon courtesy of an anti-gravity metal-H.G. Wells, The First Men In The Moon courtesy of Cavorite, an anti-gravity metal. Automatically controlled sliding doors (and dozens of other things)-Hugo Gernsback. The telecommunications satellite- the late . Tele-operated robotic hands, and waterbeds-Robert Heinlein. ...and even more .

But many science fiction stories are set in the future, which means they need to include the future of technology (or present reasons why things haven't changed). That is, they have to extrapolate from "what/where things have been and are" to "what/where might be."

CIO invited noted science fiction authors Larry Niven, Robert Sawyer, Nancy Kress and Charles Stross to share their thoughts on technology-related predictions, including lessons learned in the "business" of imagining what the future might be like. Here's what they had to say (via e-mail).

What have you learned about predicting technology's future?