Richard Hollinger on Shoplifting and Retail Shrink

10.11.2008
For the past 16 years, University of Florida criminology professor Richard Hollinger has conducted the annual National Retail Security Survey. The research polls the vice presidents of security and at stores across the country about retail shrinkage and is widely known as the benchmark for measuring shrinkage trends in the United States.

Hollinger, the director of the Security Research Project in the UF Department of Criminology, Law and Society, is still compiling the latest shrink data for 2008 and spoke with CSO about what he is hearing from loss prevention pros on what to expect this year.

CSO: The survey for 2008 isn't complete yet. But what are you anticipating?

Richard Hollinger: From what I can tell, there is really a dramatic disconnect between what happened in '07 and what seems to be happening now. I just got back from meetings with many loss prevention vice presidents. I serve on the advisory council for the national retail federation and sat in a room with many of these people. All seemed to be suggesting that '08 will be very different year. Incidents of shoplifting and employee theft look to be way up in '08.

However, actual dollar amounts might not be that dramatic. Most of the people doing the stealing aren't -types with million-dollar appetites. They are blue-collar, Joe the Plumber-types who are working in retail or who are stealing from retail. So, overall losses may not be dramatically higher because people really can't steal a lot in these stores without being caught.

Why it is so much harder to steal now?