The association, known simply as the CTIA, issued a statement Tuesday noting that despite millions of dollars in spending by major carriers to increase wireless network capacity along the parade route and the national mall, wireless voice calls and text messages might be blocked or dropped.
Despite the preparations, "there is only so much [carriers] can do with the [wireless] spectrum and sites available to prepare for what could be an unprecedented occasion," CTIA President Steve Largent warned in the statement. "There will likely be some delays."
Spokesmen for two of the major carriers gave a slightly more optimistic outlook, however, noting they have been making preparations to boost network capacity for many months.
"We're ready. We know how to do this. We know how to provide service for mega events," said Mark Siegel, a spokesman for AT&T Mobility, noting successfully handled both of this year's national political conventions as well as the funeral of former President Ronald Reagan in June.
, a spokesman for , said the crowd size will be a major factor in the number of disruptions to wireless networks. Various government agencies and media reports have put the expected crowd at 2 million to 4 million people, he noted, based largely on the record-breaking voter turnout and interest in the election.
"If we see attendance at 2 million or below, people will have a great experience on our network, but if there are more than 2 million, then they may see delays in calls and delivery of [text messages] with dropped or blocked calls ... The general public should be prepared for some disruption."
However, Taylor said even if the crowds reach 4 million and an emergency occurs, first responders will get priority for their wireless communications over the general public. That policy is followed by all the major carriers, he said, although Sprint also operates a separate iDEN network with Nextel service, which is heavily used by first responders and bypasses the GSM network of AT&T and the CDMA services of Sprint and .
But Taylor said that physical space along the parade route and at the National Mall only allow for about 1.5 million people, which would push spectators into other neighborhoods and onto other cell sites to help increase network capacity. Another factor limiting the crowd size is that Washington only has 90,000 hotel rooms.
The carriers are beefing up network capacity with the kind of equipment used to prepare for hurricanes and large crowd events. These include Cell on Wheels (COW, Cell on Light Truck (COLT) and other equipment to boost a cell site's capacity.
Sprint has increased the capacity of its CDMA network in the downtown Washington area by 40% and its iDEN network by 90%, while AT&T has increased capacity in its 3G GSM network by 80% and its 2G GSM network by 69%. Verizon Wireless is part of Verizon Communications which operates local phone service in the Washington area, and is expected to make similar boosts in capacity, CTIA officials said.
Additional staff are standing by as well, and Sprint has 25,000 cell phones ready to loan if needed.
Sprint saw a 200% increase in cellular usage in Grant Park the night of Barack Obama's victory address and "everything went beautifully," Taylor noted.
The 90% increase in iDEN capacity is meant to make sure first responders have plenty of capacity, Taylor added. "We want to make sure they can respond to any emergency, whether it's an Obama well-wisher having a heart attack, crowds pushing at a subway stop or a bomb threat at the Capitol. We've taken every precaution."
The CTIA said if high volumes of traffic cause network disruptions, it is best to text instead of talk and to take photos on camera phones and then save them, rather than sending them right away.
Finally, the CTIA urged cell phone users to have a backup plan if cell coverage fails, such as arranging in advance a place and time to meet your group.