In cosmology, the word singularity is used to describe the event horizons created by physical processes so fabulous that essentially no information can be transmitted from them. Among these are black holes, whose gravities do not permit light to escape, and the big bang, before which nothing is knowable.
In either case, these technical uses of the word have human connotations of uniqueness, incomprehensibility and danger. So it is perhaps not surprising that technofuturists and transhumanists see humanity and possibly all of creation hurtling toward something they call the Singularity.
The idea was popularized by San Diego State University mathematician Verner Vinge in the 1990s and given renewed attention in 2005 by the storied inventor Ray Kurzweil with the publication of his book The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (Viking Adult).
In a precursor article, "The Law of Accelerating Returns," published in 2001, Kurzweil wrote: "Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and non-biological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultrahigh levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light."
This millenarian vision of a positive feedback loop of ever-expanding intelligence and organization creates what might be called anti-entropy. When mankind reaches the Singularity, the universe will no longer be dominated by entropy. On the Web, there are sites for supporters of this philosophy, who identify themselves as extropians.
This change has also been viewed more ambiguously. For example, Vinge wrote of machine intelligence in a paper in 1993: "Within 30 years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended."
Although Vinge does not specify whether this is a good or bad thing, the comment echoes another famous quote that the Polish mathematician Stanislaw Ulam attributed to John von Neumann in a 1958 conversation: "The ever-accelerating progess of technology ... gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs as we know them could not continue." The Ulam/von Neumann reference may be the first use of the word singularity in this context.
Kurzweil's understanding of the Singularity, in contrast, is an unclouded one in which machine intelligence and human brains fuse for a future in which human/ machine hybrids invent ever-smarter machines and hybrids, and do this at ever- accelerating rates. They achieve a kind of immortality.
Kurzweil envisions the possibility of downloading brains and reconstituting them, thereby successfully propagating one person's consciousness, bringing a whole new perspective to Alan Turing's take on the question of whether machines can be said to think. (The Turing Test suggests that the important question for artificial intelligence is whether a human judge can discriminate between the responses of another human and those of a machine.)
Even biological immortality is possible, according to Kurzweil, because of what he calls the three overlapping revolutions of GNR -- genetics, nanotechnology and robotics. The superhuman intelligences of the coming decades will know which genes to turn on and off in order to prolong life indefinitely. Nanotechnology will enable the infusion of human bodies with robotic servants to repair biological tissues and aid in the downloading of brains.
And all of this is coming sooner than we think, according to Kurzweil and fellow futurists. Using the evidence of Moore's Law concerning the doubling of computer power as a paradigm, Kurzweil identifies exponential growth in the capacity of information technology with a biblical sweep that stretches from the beginning through six epochs:
1. Physics and Chemistry -- from the big bang through the entire prelife era of the universe.
2. Biology and DNA -- stretching from the beginning of life on earth.
3. Brains -- the advent of human dominance.
4. Technology -- approaching culmination in the 20th century.
5. Merger of Human Technology and Human Intelligence -- which is the Singularity.
6. The Universe Wakes Up -- the other side of the Singularity.
Kurzweil is particularly fond of parables that explain the overwhelming nature of exponential increase. In his 2001 paper, he cites a story about the meeting of a Chinese emperor and the man who invented chess. When the chess inventor is offered a reward by the emperor, he asks only for a grain of rice to be placed on the first square of a chess board, to be doubled on each of the subsequent 63 squares. Somewhere after the middle of the chess board, the doublings exceed the capacity of China to produce rice. By the end, the number of grains would be unimaginable, a kind of singularity.
Our 19th century predecessors used the word singular to also mean something that is peculiar. One can imagine Sherlock Holmes noticing a singular incident.
But lest anyone think that the Singularity is viewed that way in the hidebound reaches of the ivory tower, Stanford University's Symbolic Systems Program co-hosted an event with the Center for the Study of Language and Information in May. The Singularity Summit was described as "a rare gathering of thinkers to explore the rising impact of science and technology on society. The summit has been organized to further the understanding of a controversial idea -- the singularity scenario."
So if your IT department is having the blues or is perhaps confused about how to integrate all that stuff that has come in the door and how to make it fast, efficient and dependable, maybe you just have to hang on a little bit longer. Kurzweil and his cohorts suggest that a more comprehensive integration is on the horizon.
Matlis is freelance writer in Newton, Mass. You can reach him at jmtgpcmcm@netzero.net.