According to the company's telecommunications associate analyst, Chua Fong Yang, IDC's second quarter, 2008, Asia Pacific Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker study showed that total mobile and handheld units, excluding parallel imports, would grow by 2.3 per cent in 2008, to reach 4.8 million units.
Chua attributed the slow forecast to creeping inflation and the petrol price increase in June 2008. "The demand for traditional mobile phones slowed down immediately after the Malaysia government announced the 40 per cent increase in petrol price. Phones with a lower price band are particularly impacted as people are prioritising their purchases due to the rising prices of necessity goods."
Still optimistic about the longer term: mobile number portability
Chua said that, however, the country's mobile subscriber base is expected to grow by 10.1 per cent. He was optimistic that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for mobile phone and handheld units' shipment in Malaysia would reach 5.3 per cent over the next five years, reaching 6.0 million units by 2012.
IDC's study predicted that over the next five years, the growth of converged mobile phones in Malaysia would outpace the growth of traditional mobile phones, he said.
"The 2008 to 2012 CAGR for converged mobile phones is anticipated to reach 10.1 per cent, compared to the 3.3 per cent for traditional mobile phones," said Chua. "The declining Average Selling Value (ASV) price of converged mobile phones will help to drive the adoption rate of converged phones among mobile subscribers."
Chua said that the recent nationwide implementation of Mobile Number Portability (MNP), which allows mobile users to take their number to a new provider, would provide mobile phone and handheld vendors with a new platform to market their products.
"The partnership between mobile vendors and mobile operators is inevitable since mobile operators are expected to bundle converged devices together with their voice packages to encourage mobile subscriber loyalty to their mobile network, similar to those offered in Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore," he said.