Most overrated tech hype of 2006?
Kristie Lu Stout, anchor/correspondent, CNN: "Blu-ray vs HD-DVD."
Joe Locandro, director of IT for CLP, agreed: "The battle of DVD formats, with ... HD-DVD and the (Sony-backed) Blu-ray format...reminds me of the VHS/Beta videotape battles-although Beta was technically superior, VHS had better marketing. Maybe by the time these standards evolve we'll all have moved to a new media [beyond] DVDs."
"RFID technology has evolved to be more stable, reliable and affordable [in] different industries like garments, electronic, healthcare, logistics, and retail," said Justin Yue, CEO for Tradelink Electronic Commerce. "However the adoption rate is still far from satisfactory [due to] lack of collaboration among participants. The full benefits of RFID can only be achieved when all parties along the supply chain are contributing and sharing business data, and the first step is a common platform to anchor all parties."
Sunny Lee, executive director of IT, Jockey Club, agreed: "RFID--with all the promises that this technology will conquer the world, so far it's not much more than a glorified bar code."
Lee singled out more overhyped trends: "3G: Today, more than 50 percent of new mobile phones in HK are 3G phones, but the killer app for 3G is still...you've guessed it: voice!" As for storage and server virtualization: "It might be real in the western world, but it's still very much a 'virtual' technology over in our corner of the world."
Michael Leung, senior VP and CIO, Information Systems Group, Bank of America (Asia): "YouTube."
"DRM (digital rights management)," said Charles Mok, chairman, Internet Society Hong Kong. "A technology developed to unilaterally protect owners' rights with insufficient consideration for users' convenience and right-to-use is almost surely bound for nowhere. Copyright owners should revolutionize their own business models rather than putting in patches here and there to make life more difficult and less enjoyable for users--think customer equity, please."
Howard Dickson, Hong Kong Government CIO: "The deployment of WiMAX in the market is still insignificant as standards-based equipment is not as prevalent as expected. Widespread take-up would need development of standards with certified interoperable products, availability of licensed spectrum and availability of self-installing, self-configuring equipment at customer premises."
Dickson said: "It is expected that WiMAX will establish market share over the next few years at a greater growth rate but will not become the dominant mobile technology any time soon." However, he added that the Hong Kong government "will continue to provide an enabling environment for the introduction of new communications technologies, such as broadband wireless access for fixed-mobile convergence and ultra-wideband for home networking."
"WAN optimization (accelerating application delivery over WANs and UTM requirements" was pegged by Linda Hui, managing director of F5 Networks Hong Kong as overrated. "There were many acquisitions in 2005 as various vendors tried to pursue this market." Hui said a survey conducted by her firm in mid-2006 showed many corporations are quite happy with their branch-to-branch network performance. "When these corporations encountered network-performance issues, they simply chose to add bandwidth rather than adding a WAN optimization device," she said. "Customers explained this is due to continuous falling bandwidth cost {which provided] easier justification for adding bandwidth rather than purchasing a device with which they have no experience." Hui said she believes there's "still a lot of market education required to help organizations understand that latency issues are not resolved by adding bandwidth."
Top IT trend for 2007?
According to Sin Chung Kai, Legislative Councillor for IT, broadband wireless access (BWA) and next generation networks will be a major trend in '007. "Mobility has become one of the most important elements for any kind of IT application or device," said Sin. "With the vision of moving towards a ubiquitous information society, where people can access any information anytime anywhere, we need to ensure that we have advanced information infrastructure serving as our foundation."
"For the trade and logistics industry, we expect DTTNs (Digital Trade and Transportation Networks) to be one of the focal trends next year," said Yue. "DTTNs will accelerate a higher adoption rate of electronic commerce for SMEs as it reduces the entry barrier for SMEs to communicate with big players electronically. We expect that more application service providers and software developers will leverage the DTTN platform for application development, so more businesses will realize the benefit of electronic commerce."
"Click fraud," said CNN's Stout, "especially as it starts to erode Google's share price."
Howard Dickson tipped software-as-a-service (SaaS) as the trend to watch in 2007. "With the growing reliance on the Internet for providing electronic services, it is foreseen that software will increasingly be offered by suppliers in the form of service rather than product," said Dickson. The GCIO said this will impact different fronts such as the trading governance regime under the WTO. "From the user's perspective, it would mean different procurement approaches and new models for service provisions...this will be an interesting and important IT trend in 2007."
Dickson also predicted greater use of SOA and related information dissemination technologies. "Organizations looking for greater utility of their e-business applications will find the need to use architectures that extend their reach and standardization (of interfaces) and tools like SOA and web services may help achieve this goal," he said. "Also, at the information dissemination level, technologies like Really Simple Syndication (RSS)--a data format that enables websites to inform subscribers of new content and to distribute content more efficiently to clients-is being widely used for syndicating weblog content...according to Gartner, its market penetration is estimated to be 20-50 percent of [its] target audience. In the HKSAR, RSS has been adopted on some government websites."
"The top IT trend in 2007 will revolve around web acceleration," said F5's Hui. "Companies are upgrading their network equipment to handle more traffic as more applications move to browser-based platforms. The problem of web-enabled applications is that many applications are not designed to run on the web and this will cause performance problems.
"To solve this issue," said Hui, "companies will seek devices that can offload their applications, servers and network to speed up the whole delivery process to their users-an application delivery device together with web acceleration features. We believe this will be the one tech device that companies cannot live without due to the increased importance of web applications and the increased traffic."
Michael Leung: "The FON Community (Fonero WiFi bandwidth sharing)."
"Emphasis on online security will increase next year," said CLP's Locandro. "Identity fraud is ever-increasing and there are professionally funded, well organized white-collar criminals devising new means of [illegally] accessing funds on the internet. Companies and citizens are vulnerable to various means of fraud from phishing to collecting personal information from dummy web sites, requiring countermeasures. So buy shares in IT security companies...even better, buy shares in ethical hacking companies."
"Web 2.0," said Charles Mok, "but people (including its proponents) need an idea of exactly what Web 2.0 is first. Social networking, blogging, RSS...all these and other new applications will continue to change the way people aggregate and communicate on the web, but [we'll see] a growing gap of user appreciation between the 'publish' model of Web 1.0 and the 'metaphor of people' model of Web 2.0. A different kind of 'digital divide' emerging?"
Sunny Lee agreed: "Web 2.0: The maturity and wide adoption of technologies such as XML and web services will deliver great value to businesses and make e-living more enjoyable." Lee also said that digital home entertainment would break big: "The introduction of digital TV broadcasting in HK, coupled with rapid development in digital media technology and content, will make this a fun area for businesses and couch potatoes alike." But the Jockey Club IT expert also cautioned about the rise of: "Web-aholics': people addicted to the Internet, including those who hooked on online gaming, ICQ, messaging, etc."
The one device or technology you absolutely can't live without?
Leung: "Dopod P800 with GPS function."
Stout: "My digital Chinese dictionary by Besta."
Sunny Lee: "My Blackberry for sure, I'm lost without it."
Sin Chung Kai: "My O2 Xda Iii mobile handset. I always use it to make phone calls, check & send emails/SMS, plan my schedule and read documents. Without it, I would be 'disconnected' from the rest of the world and my daily business would become a mess."
"Gmail," said Mok, "but the promise of 'never having to delete email' clearly cannot be kept. I've used it for two years and 2.78GB is not enough. Many Gmail users would prefer a reasonably priced for-charge service, but unfortunately Google may think that's too little money for them to bother about."
"My HP 4150 PDA-it's an old model," said Hui. "I can live without a phone but cannot live without a PDA because I can borrow a phone from somebody--I can even switch it off but my PDA has too much vital information: contacts, VIP card numbers and banking information. I also read a lot of articles on my PDA while waiting."
"I always treat my Blackberry as my personal assistant, who helps me manage my daily schedule for social and personal contact in a well organized way," said Yue. "I can't imagine how inconvenient it would be to live without 'her'."
Locandro: "I can't live without my Sony Ericsson P910i phone/PDA. With a busy lifestyle I feel I need to be connected real time with messages and meeting changes. The outlook calendars are synchronized from home and office so there is no double booking and clashes with events."
"Carrying your contacts and favorite restaurants on the PDA is also handy in exchanging information with others," said Locandro. "I never carry a diary."
Howard Dickson, the GCIO, offered a more philosophical response: "The basic answer to this question should be 'none' as prudent business and risk management philosophies suggest that we should not rely entirely on technologies and tech devices," he declared. "That said, the Internet and broadband access to it, whether in fixed or mobile mode, have enabled some very basic and frequently used applications to enhance our business and daily lives."
"All the more we need to be concerned about proper security and privacy when using tech devices and environments," concluded the GCIO.