Unfortunately, that means open source as marketing will be on the rise as well. As more commercial software vendors open their code in a bid to gain attention, it's going to get harder and harder to spot a true open source project among the pretenders.

Those who want open source to remain foremost a social movement, rather than a business strategy, will rally Version 3.0 of the GNU GPL (General Public License), development of which will continue throughout 2006. Overall, however, I predict that GPL 3.0, with its emphasis on patent issues and international licensing, will have less dire an impact on the enterprise than some pundits have suggested. Debate over some of the more contentious clauses in the new license could lead to schisms between certain factions of the open source community; but then, that's nothing new.

Speaking of opening rifts, however, I predict that 2006 will see the beginnings of a concerted effort to widen the Linux marketplace. Top IT vendors like HP and IBM have so far tended to form partnerships with just the two largest Linux vendors -- Novell and Red Hat -- leaving alternative players like Lin spire, Man driva, Ubunt u, and Xandros in the cold. Don't expect the second tier to take the situation sitting down for much longer. Next year you'll start to hear the first serious rumblings (some of which will come from customers) about breaking the Novell/Red Hat duopoly.

What else do Linspire, Mandriva, Ubuntu, and Xandros have in common? They're all Linux distributions that put heavy emphasis on the desktop user experience, with the goal of transitioning end-users away from Windows. So does that mean 2006 will be the long-fabled "year of desktop Linux"?

Unfortunately, I doubt it. What will happen, however, is that a growing number of organizations will begin using open source productivity applications in place of their commercial equivalents, particularly in the public sector. OpenOffice.org will lead the charge.