Italian earthquake spotlights early warning systems

06.04.2009
In the wake of Monday's earthquake in Italy, scientists and researchers working on early warnings systems said that knowing about an earthquake even just a few seconds before it hits can make a big difference to people in a stricken area.

"Scientifically, no one in the world is capable of making a serious and verifiable prediction about exactly when an earthquake will hit," according to Enzo Boschi, speaking to the ADN Kronos wire service shortly after Monday's earthquake hit at about 3:30 a.m. local time. However, earthquakes can be anticipated right before they strike.

Early warning systems analyze data coming from networks of sensors in the ground and in water in geographic areas at high risk for earthquakes. These networks, or grids, send signals along fiber-optic lines to control centers.

Software is capable of managing information sent by the network during the very first seconds of an earthquake as fissures are formed at its epicenter. During a large earthquake, this permits alerts to be sent out a few seconds (or longer, depending on how far the alert is being transmitted) before the first shocks hit communications, transport and energy grids.

There are currently a number of projects to create early warning systems in Italy and around the world, . Having started just a few years ago, these projects have already helped improve alert systems, reducing the number of false alarms and enabling faster analysis by current warning systems.

Early warning systems have been refined thanks to, among other things, the incorporation of more advanced algorithms to decode signals coming from geological sensor grids. Some of the more advanced early warning systems in Europe fall under the aegis of the SAFER (Seismic Early Warning for Europe) project, an initiative backed by the European Commission.