Global Capital Fight Threatens as Refi Bubble Looms: Study

10.03.2011
A just-released pictures elements of a major split between large, cash-rich businesses and small-to-midsized companies with higher leverage, as both face growing cash challenges in a worrisome global economy.

The study analyzed debt in more than 9,000 large companies in the G-20 names, and presented "the looming global debt picture" of competition for capital, which "will intensify as over $11.5 trillion of financing will be due in the next five years." That circumstance likely will limit the availability of debt capital, the report said, and the public sector's deficits will only increase that capital-markets competition and volatility.

"Capital is now a powerful competitive asset and companies who can raise it quickly have a clear advantage," Ajit Kambil, global research director of Deloitte's CFO Program said. "Not only are we at an inflection point on interest rates, but economic recovery is constrained by a growth in demand within developed economies."

Kambil said one of the lessons of the study is that CFOs of companies "with significant leverage...need to consider moving with urgency to convince boards and CEOs to recapitalize." Those cash-rich concerns should examine strategies for using the company's strength to raise capital. "This can represent a significant competitive advantage for large companies with low leverage over their smaller competitors," he said.

The study employed surveys of more than 1,000 CFOs and other financial executives last August and September, and interviews with experts.