Future of the telco - marginalisation or reinvention?

03.05.2011
"How did we get left behind -- while the rest of the world evolved?" The uncomfortable truth, penned by Nokia's CEO in his now famous 'burning deck' missive, defines the challenge facing the entire ICT sector -- in this era of massive technology disruption and changing user preferences, how do the market leaders of today sustain their business tomorrow? It was one of the key issues flirted with, but not fully confronted at this year's TelCon 2011 event earlier this month.

The disruptive technologies -- the explosion of mobile devices and applications, social networking, cloud computing, always-on video, converged networks -- are coalescing into the new mainstream IT platform of the future.

It is being driven by the voracious appetite of a new generation of users -- the communications agnostics who supplant email with social networking, calls with videoconferencing, text with instant messaging and multimedia collaboration. These are users who increasingly demand seamless access to what they want, no matter the device, network or location.

It is being enabled by the capability of the next generation of fibre rich fixed and mobile networks. These trends are totally dependent upon high-bandwidth, resilient, high-capacity, always-on and converged networks -- yet those who are expected to invest in these networks are increasingly marginalised as 'smart but commoditised distribution pipes', while the value goes to the over-the-top innovators and content providers.

This is the reality of the new world: every assumption of who will be the leaders of the future, or indeed the factors that define leadership is being overthrown. These transformational pressures span the telecommunications, IT services, hardware, software and content industries, with each looking to identify sustainable future business models, at times at one another's expense.

New Zealand is not at the bleeding edge of this change -- not least due to our aging rather than youthful population and relatively low GDP.