Assessing the chances of a smartphone surprise

03.06.2011
For a company whose every move is shrouded in mystery and whose every public pronouncement triggers another round of "Guess the product unveiling," Apple isn't that difficult to figure out. When it comes to product debuts, the company hews to a fairly predictable schedule of roll-outs before deliberately selected audiences at times you could set your watch to, give or take a month.

Time to roll out new iPods? Look for Apple to hold a press event in September, timed to get a jump on the holiday shopping season. iPad updates are usually held in the first three months of the year at press events where Apple can show off all the latest changes. New iMacs and MacBooks? Unless there's a substantive redesign, that's usually something Apple will announce by press release.

Which is why last month's was so laughable. Apple times such things to get maximum exposure from a tech press eager to report its every move. It certainly doesn't save hardware reveals for the weekend crowd standing in line at the Cinnabon at the local galleria.

And that brings me to next week's Worldwide Developers Conference, where in Monday's keynote. The company will show off the , tell us all about the soon-to-be-revealed , and provide the first public glimpse at .

It's that last announcement that's particularly intriguing, and not just because iOS 5, unlike Lion, has remained under wraps up until now. I'll be paying extra close attention to Apple's iOS 5 presentation on Monday, because when Apple talks mobile operating system updates, a new version of the iPhone isn't that far behind.

The last three Worldwide Developers Conferences have certainly exhibited a familiar pattern: