"That's more than enough time to make the holiday sales season," said Stephen Baker, a retail analyst with the NPD Group.

Today's rumor -- and plainly stated as such -- first surfaced in in Fortune.

Citing a source described as a "major Apple investor," Elmer-DeWitt said that invitations to an iPad Mini launch event would go out Oct. 10, suggesting an Oct. 17 date for the event and a Nov. 2 on-sale debut.

The Oct. 17 and Nov. 2 dates were predicated on past practice by Apple, which several times has issued invitations one week, held the ensuing event in the middle of the next week, then started selling the new product the Friday of the week after that.

Apple used that when on Sept. 4 it invited reporters and analysts to a Sept. 12 function that introduced the iPhone 5; the smartphone hit retail and pre-orders began reaching buyers on Sept. 21.